PHOENIX — The Major League Baseball trade deadline is at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday, and the buyers far outnumber the sellers. With 56 games remaining, 23 teams still have a chance to capture a division title or Wild Card berth.
There are 12 of those—six division titles and six Wild Card berths, three and three in each league.
In the American League, three teams are done: the Los Angeles Angels, Oakland A’s and Chicago White Sox, at 31 games out in the Wild Card race are so far back they can’t even be seen in the rearview mirror.
In the National League, only Miami and Colorado, who came into MLB together as 1993 expansion teams, are completely spent. The top six teams have only two games of separation, and there’s just a 6 1/2-game spread among the top 13 teams.
This is what’s happened since MLB expanded from a 10-team playoff format to 12 teams in 2022: the more the merrier in the playoff races, but a lot fewer trade partners. Torey Lovullo, the manager of the defending NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks, whose team is again right in the thick of it, thinks this is just fine for baseball.
“It’s great for the fans,” he said in an interview Saturday. “The standings are changing rapidly. And then it makes it tough for front offices to make that decision—to buy or sell. There’s no perfect science to it. I’m just glad we’re among the buyers, among the group of teams that are trying to enhance things.”
The D-backs already enhanced the back of their bullpen Friday, sending a group of promising minor league players to the Marlins for left-handed reliever A.J. Puk, who Saturday and Sunday pitched a pair of fairly clean innings as the D-backs split those games with Pittsburgh.
The Marlins continued their own dismantling by sending the versatile Jazz Chisholm to the New York Yankees in another trade for minor leaguers.
Miami decided early to retool, shipping Luis Arráez to the San Diego Padres back in May. The Padres, in their quest to make the playoffs and win the first World Series in club history, picked the pockets of both the Marlins and White Sox early, getting starter Dylan Cease from Chicago prior to the end of spring training. Cease just pitched the second no-hitter in Padres history. Arráez, hitting .309, still has a chance to win his third consecutive league batting title for his third team, although Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers is currently hitting .314 with a chance to win the NL Triple Crown.
“This gives us some room to do other things this season if we have to,” Padres general manager A.J. Preller said at the time of the Arráez trade. “Hopefully we have a team now that’s going to be competitive. But we constantly have an eye on what’s out there, judging our payroll and budget.”
The Padres have yet to make a big move heading up to the deadline, getting reliever Jason Adam from the Tampa Bay Rays for three prospects, but you know Preller is working it, because that’s what he does.
Two years ago, he engineered the blockbuster deadline trade obtaining Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals. Soto had a terrific postseason and helped the Padres to the NL Championship Series, where they lost to the Philadelphia Phillies in five games. This past offseason Preller swapped Soto to the Yankees for some pitching that’s helped the team.
The Padres, at 57-51, are high in the mix of NL Wild Card teams, having won eight of their last 11 heading into the deadline.
Thus far, there have been no such deals for Soto-like high-profile players, but the clock is ticking.
Instead, there’s been the Dodgers shipping veteran pitcher James Paxton back to the Boston Red Sox. The Nationals, on the brink of the Wild Card race 6 1/2 games out, sent outfielder Jesse Winker to the New York Mets for pitcher Tyler Stuart.
The Rays also traded starter Zach Eflin to the Baltimore Orioles, outfielder Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners, and All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes to the Chicago Cubs in their own purge. The Orioles, in a tight race for both the AL East and playoffs with the Yankees, also got reliever Seranthony Dominguez and outfielder Cristian Pache from the Phillies for outfielder Austin Hays.
With so much competition for talent available and playoff positions, there are sure to be more moves.
The D-backs, at 55-51, wanted to attack their needs this week. With starters Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriquez working their way slowly back from season-long shoulder injuries, the D-backs are not done yet, general manager Mike Hazen told reporters during a Friday conference call. But they’re not in the market for starting pitching, although there’s no way of knowing how healthy these guys will remain and what they’ll be able to contribute working their way back so late in the season.
“You can’t just say you want to go improve your team and then not go and do it,” Hazen said. “But I’m probably going to have to roll the dice and not acquire a starting pitcher.”
The D-backs failed to acquire a starter at the 2023 deadline and that came back to haunt them when they went with bullpen games in both the NLCS against the Phillies and World Series vs. the Texas Rangers. The NLCS game worked out, but the World Series didn’t as the D-backs lost in five games.
Hazen called the inability to pick up a starter last year one his greatest regrets. Now he’s back at that juncture again.
No amount of analytics or gut instincts can give any general manager a crystal ball. What is certain is that once again the jockeying for playoff positions is coming down to the final weekend of the season. Last year, the D-backs had 84 wins and made the playoffs despite losing their final four games. This year, it’s probably going to take more than that.
“Sellers are in a really good place,” Lovullo said. “It could be a little dangerous. Some teams are going to be a little desperate.”
(This story has been corrected to accurately reflect the number of games the Nationals are out of the Wild Card race.)
